For the first time ever, 10-year bond yields track diesel prices more closely than crude, and Trump’s fuel deal with Putin may be too little too late
"Ultimately, diesel and gasoline drive inflation, not crude oil."
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# Investment Summary The unusual decoupling of 10-year Treasury yields from crude oil prices—now tracking diesel prices instead—signals that refined fuel costs are becoming the primary inflation driver, which could pressure both bond markets and monetary policy differently than historical patterns suggest. Trump's reported fuel deal with Putin may fail to provide meaningful relief, as diesel supply constraints (rather than crude availability) appear to be the bottleneck constraining inflation expectations and bond yield trajectories.
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