How Japan went from a rice shortage to a rice surplus in two years, as climate change, tourism, and a U.S. trade fight collided
A drought-driven shortage in 2024 nearly doubled prices to ¥4,300 a bag and toppled a minister, before farmers overcorrected into a record surplus.
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# Japan's Rice Market Whipsaw: From Crisis to Glut Japan's rice market experienced extreme volatility as a 2024 drought shortage drove prices to ¥4,300 per bag (nearly double normal levels) and triggered political upheaval, but farmers' subsequent overcorrection has created a record surplus that threatens to depress prices and squeeze agricultural sector profitability. The boom-bust cycle reflects broader market risks from climate volatility and supply chain disruptions, presenting both headwinds for Japanese agricultural stocks and opportunities for grain importers seeking cheaper
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